On the other hand, if a horse has been running marginally on the dirt with moderate or no support at the windows and is suddenly being bet you might want to pay even more attention than you would if that money showed in a dirt race…especially if the horse has good grass breeding, a good grass trainer, a good turf jockey or any combination of those factors.

 

I’m not talking about a horse that was 10-1 to 15-1 in his last few races suddenly going off at 2-1. In a case like that the word is out and win or lose, the value has been totally squeezed. I’m talking about a horse that has been, for example, 7-1 to 10-1 with little success either on dirt or turf in his recent races. What you want to see is the public stepping in on what they perceive to be a logical contender and that 2-1 or 5-2 ML favorite holding at that price or lower while the horse you are looking at still gets enough support to come in as the 3^rd or 4^th favorite, say at 9-2 or 5-1 from an 8-1 to 10-1 or higher ML. You especially want this in a 10 or 11 horse field, because then you may be on to a very live runner. And best of all, you are still getting value because the horse hasn’t been hammered by the “big money.”

 

“The Win/Place Discrepancy” is much easier to visualize but more difficult to track because it could lock you into following the board right up until post time while tracking as many as 3-4 horses.

 

Simply put, you want to find the horses that are getting support in the win pool without demanding “saver” money in the place pool. This theory is based on the belief that smart money which comes from players confident that they have the right horse or the right information on a horse doesn’t need to be backed up by also being bet in the place pool in case the horse falls short..

 

Therefore, given that a number of other positive handicapping factors are in place, a horse that has $60,000 in the win pool and only $14,000 in the place pool could be more “well meant” than a horse with $80,000 in the win pool but a whopping $35,000 in the place pool.

 

Late money can always skew those pools, but if the betting remains along the fractional lines of the sample above and a place player comes in at the last minute and takes advantage of an overlay in that pool, it doesn’t mean that it was money bet in support of the win play. And besides, you’re just using the place pool to give you confidence for the win play or as an exotic key. In that case your return isn’t affected at all by that late money.

 

Watching those pools can be a very effective way of finding the value play and is particularly rewarding when applied to large Turf fields of good horses at the major venues.

 

RICK LANG

 

Note: Make sure you check back periodically as I’ll post updated hints that should help you increase your bottom line.

 

 

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