"The tote board isn’t totally arbitrary…use it"
A Handicapping Hint From Rick Lang:
"Fall turf racing, especially at places like
Belmont, Keeneland,
Arlington and Churchill invariably produces sharp moves by sharp trainers in full fields for big purses. These races are a conditioner and owner’s life-line. And there is no reason they shouldn’t be a bettor’s as well.
One of the main ways of following the well-meant moves is by…you guessed it…FOLLOWING THE MONEY. One very significant way of making the turf money moves work for you is to pay particular attention to two things: I’ll call them “The Reversal Factor” and “The Win/Place Discrepancy.”
“The Reversal Factor” is a rather easy concept. If a horse has shown good form on the dirt and has in past races been getting support at the windows but is not being bet at all on his move to the turf he is very likely a toss. This is especially true if he is facing the same, slightly better or slightly lesser competition than he did recently. Don’t think you’ve discovered a massive opportunity that no one else has spotted. No matter how good an analyst you are, finding such an overlay happens only twice…very rarely and never."
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